A pure test of this would be to run it on lots of markets, testing different SMA variations, testing different stoplosses, and allocating amongst these variations out of sample using price history that has realistic, and being conservative with fill times. You'd get a much lower SR. The basic idea of your system probably isn't crazy, but running it at 10x leverage IS crazy.

Have another read of my book because there are many mistakes you're potentially making which I talk about at length in the book. Thanks for your comprehensive reply, Rob. I guess my main mistake was in assuming that my stoplosses would get filled fairly quickly with an acceptable amount of slippage. I didn't realize that they could be delayed several hours or days. Let's go back to the less outrageous system which is 4x leveraged. Let's assume another October Robert, thank you for the invaluable information you collected and spent the time to share.

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While looking at your method to retrieve account and positions info from IB, one of your two "Getting positions and accounting information" links showed as broken. Thanks, Lionel. Can you tell me which page the link is on, and the address it is trying to link to. To answer your question though, yes the current state is stored in databases. Robert, In trading I see that intraday price volatility is more than expected by standard deviation of daily returns.

I think it's because only day close prices are used. What if I get daily volatility in different way, based on returns, which are maximum price move from previous close? Then EMA smoothing as usual. It enables to avoid big capital moves intraday, but, I cannot understand, it decreases profits or doesn't decrease, because capital used to get positions becomes smaller What do you think?

Sincerely, Julia. You shouldn't expect this to increase or decrease your profits but it is true to say that adding more information eg intra-day price movements should give you a better forecast of volatility; so if you measure expected versus realised vol it will probably come out slightly better Having said that you aren't comparing apples with apples; your measure will indeed be biased compared to a daily standard deviation of returns, so you should adjust your risk target to compensate for this.

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Hi Rob, Working through the books as multiple members in my circle recommended. Would love to hear your ideas if you have any. Depends what you mean by 'incorporate'. I can think of two places where I use Sharpe Ratios in calibrating trading systems. For ii the Sharpe ratio is only a weak input since we're normally running with much less leverage than the Sharpe would suggest under full Kelly criteria.

For i in principal you could use other performance measures. I don't personally like MAR because maximum drawdown isn't a very robust statistic drawn off just one observation and also it's interpretation isn't very intuitive it depends on the amount of time the strategy has been trading. Hi Rob, Pysystemtrade calculates instrument correlations based on the past N days of returns.

Might it make more sense to base the correlations on the most recent high volatility day eg. Personally I prefer to measure correlation, and then I impose a risk overlay which measures risk assuming all correlations go to 1,-1 I'll be blogging about it soon. Hi Rob, In playing with pysystemtrade, I wanted to see what happened if I removed the possibility of any short positions. I have heard that long positions usually are more effective than short positions when it comes to trend following.

So, I basically added a line to your forecasting file that brought the forecast to 0 if it was negative.

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The result was a huge bump in sharp from. Do you think this is a reasonable tweak to be made to the system? Well it completely changes what you're doing - it won't be as diversifying to a long only portfolio. Plus that isn't a statistically significant Sharpe increase. Hi Rob, Thanks for your help on my last two questions. This would indicate that the further contract which I am holding would go up in price over time. Do you know what could cause this? Thanks, again. I'd appreciate your opinion in this tricky matter. Sorry for the delay in responding.

I was looking for some trading tips then i have visited your blog and found very useful tips. Please suggest some stock tips in future. Hi, Where can I purchase this one? Is this could be help about trading? I will try this guide with FxLeaders soon! Hi Rob, would it be possible for you to post the ewmac formula here, as a working example with a few days data. I have copied your formula from Appendix B, but would like to check I have it correctly. I will be using in excel and Aspen Graphics.

Looking at real numbers would be a great help. Hi Rob, I need your advice on setting up risk controls. Trading and risk managing manually. How do I go about it.

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Manually, I estimate duration of trend and post limit orders hoping to catch climax of exhaustion. No impulsive trading. I start always with 1 standard lot and then average it if climax estimated by me does not materialises. Maximum lots used by me to average have been 5. But when retracement happens returns are quick n substantial. For auto trader I want to design lot management and stopout level and link it with drawdown or equity level.

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What kind of filters should I use to control drawdown and equity. Hi Rob, I need your advice on setting up lot and risk controls.

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Manually, I estimate duration of trend and post limit orders hoping to catch climax of trend exhaustion taking into account the probability of daily pullbacks and daily average pips as a measuring scale. For an fx spot auto trader I want to design lot management and stopout level and link it with drawdown or equity level.

Apologies for the slow response to your comment. That's an absolutely huge question you've asked in fact really it's lots of questions , and all I can do is point you to the advice elsewhere in this blog and in my books "Leveraged Trading" and "Systematic Trading". Hi Rob, A bit embarrassed to ask this question.

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Question is Would your book still be helpful as you have been designing all your strategis on Python no experience whatsoever on Python? Secondly - How difficult would it be for a commerce guy to get hold of python? You can implement the strategies in the book on a spreadsheet. I have an ex-colleague who implemented them in Amibroker.



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By 'commerce' I guess you mean non programmer, and by 'get hold of' I assume you mean learn.