With most of the EM currencies trading in undervalued territory and local EM bond markets selling off throughout February, this now offers good entry points — mainly for EM high yielders which got particularly exposed via the bond channel during the February sell-off.

ECB Preview (European Central Bank)

We continue to see CZK as the most attractive currency in the region as the Czech National Bank remains hawkish and should hike rates twice this year , the currency is undervalued vs EUR and the Czech current account should remain in surplus this year. Cookies are small, simple text files stored in your computer, tablet or mobile phone when you visit a website or use an app. Some cookies are necessary, while others make the website more personal and relevant to you. Learn more about how we use cookies in our cookie statement.

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I want to use limited functionalities on this website and agree to the use of strictly necessary cookies only. The reaction of ECB officials to the bond sell-off has been mostly more cautious than some other central banks such as the US Federal Reserve. In part, that is likely a reflection of more economic fragility in the Eurozone amid the relatively slow vaccine rollout.

Latest data suggest the ECB has not started doing so yet see chart. The ECB will also release new economic projections which are likely to show weaker growth and higher inflation in the short term, but little change to medium-term forecasts, hence the rise in inflation in the coming months is expected to be oil price related and temporary. The overall message from the ECB is likely to be that policy will remain accommodative for a considerable time and it will use the flexibility of its policy tools to counter unwarranted tightening of financial market conditions.

European Central Bank

Here are the few things we know — vaccine rollout in the Eurozone is slower than the U. Economic data has been mixed and the Eurozone would be lucky to escape contraction in the first quarter. So the big question for the ECB tomorrow is whether they will look past near term uncertainties.

Barclays Research expect the central bank to keep all its policy instruments on hold, with communication focussing on maintaining favourable financial conditions. Modest increases in asset purchases are likely in response to higher market rates.

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Dovish risks at the Meeting could include pointing more prominently to the possibility of interest rate cuts or formal increases in the purchase envelopes, while hawkish risks include endorsing higher yields as reflecting better news. The key focus will be instead on any potential measure to counter the recent rise in bond yields: we think that an increase in the size of the PEPP is highly unlikely, and any action in that field may only consist in frontloading some bond purchases.

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Still, as long as the size of the PEPP remains unchanged, we doubt that would be very impactful on the euro. Also, it seems likely that the new staff forecasts will have to be downgraded for the near-term, but whether that has implications for the ECB expectations over the medium-term is questionable.