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• Lee Kelvin (Author of Secrets of Forex Scalping - Learn To Scalp The Forex Market For Profit)?
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• HIGH PROBABILITY TRADING SETUPS for the CURRENCY MARKET Including the Top 10 Trading Rules!
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No Excuses, Ever One time our boss invited us into his office to discuss a trading program that he wanted to set up. Losses are a given part of trading and anyone who engages in this enterprise understands and accepts that fact. Our boss knew that the first scenario was just a regular part of business, while the second one would ultimately bring about the blow up of the entire account. As traders, we must take responsibility for our mistakes. In a business where you either adapt or die, the refusal to acknowledge and correct your shortcomings will ultimately lead to disaster.

Markets can and will do anything. In LTCM went bankrupt, nearly bringing the global financial markets to their knees when a series of complicated interest rate plays generated billions of dollars worth of losses in a matter of days. Instead of accepting the fact that they were wrong, LTCM traders continued to double up on their positions, believing that the markets would eventually turn their way.

It took the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a series of top-tier investment banks to step in and stem the tide of losses until the portfolio positions could be unwound without further damage. In post-debacle interviews, most LTCM traders refused to acknowledge their mistakes, stating that the LTCM blowup was the result of extremely unusual circumstances unlikely to ever happen again. If, for example, you are short a currency because you anticipate negative fundamental news and that news indeed occurs, but the currency rallies instead, you must get out right away.

If you do not understand what is going on in the market, it is always better to step aside and not trade.

The 5-Minute Trading Strategy

That way you will not have to come up with excuses for why you blew up your account. No excuses. These impatient traders are perfect momentum traders because they wait for the market to have enough strength to push a currency in the desired direction and piggyback on the momentum in hopes for an extension move as momentum continues to build. However, once the move shows signs of losing strength, our impatient momentum traders will also be the first to jump ship so a true momentum strategy needs to have solid exit rules to protect profits while at the same time be able to ride as much of the extension move as possible.

We use the exponential moving average over the simple moving average because it places higher weight on recent movements, which is what we need for fast momentum trades. The moving average is used to helps us determine the trend. This strategy waits for a reversal trade but only takes it when momentum supports the reversal move enough to create a larger extension burst.

The Swing Trader’s Bible: Strategies to Profit from Market Volatility

The position is exited in two separate segments, the first half helps us lock in gains and ensures that we never turn a winner into a loser. The second half lets us attempt to catch what could become a very large move with no risk since we already moved our stop to breakeven. Rules for a Long Trade 1 Look for currency pair to be trading below the period EMA and MACD to be negative 2 Wait for price to cross above the period EMA, make sure that MACD is either in the process of crossing from negative to positive or have crossed into positive territory no longer than 5 bars ago 3 Go long 10 pips above the period EMA 4 For aggressive trade, place stop at swing low on 5 minute chart.

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Although there were a few instances of the price attempting to move above the period EMA between and EST, a trade was not triggered at that time because the MACD histogram was below the zero line. We waited for the MACD histogram to cross the zero line and when it did, the trade was triggered at 1. We enter at 1. Our first target is 1. It gets triggered approximately 2 and a half hours later. We exit half of the position and trail the remaining half by the period EMA minus 15 pips. The second half is eventually closed at 1.

The math is a bit more complicated on this one. The stop is at the EMA minus 20 pips or Our first target is entry plus amount risked or It gets triggered five minutes later. The second half is eventually closed at Although the profit was not as attractive as the first trade, the chart shows a clean and smooth move that indicates that price action conformed well to our rules. We see the price cross below the period EMA. However the MACD histogram is still positive, so we wait for it to cross below the zero line 25 minutes later. Our trade is then triggered at 0.

So we enter at 0. Our stop is the EMA plus 20 pips. At the time, the EMA was at 0. Our first target is the entry price minus the amount risked or 0. The target is hit 2 hours later and the stop on the second half was moved to breakeven. We then proceed to trail the second half of the position by the period EMA plus 15 pips. The second half is then closed at 0.

In the chart above, the price crosses below the period EMA and we wait 10 minutes later for the MACD histogram to move into negative territory whereby triggering our entry order at 1.

Based upon the rules above, as soon as the trade is triggered, we put our stop at the EMA plus 20 pips or 1. Our first target is the entry price minus the amount risked or 1. It gets triggered shortly thereafter. We then proceed to trail the sec- ond half of the position by the period EMA plus 15 pips.

The second half of the position is eventually closed at 1. Coincidently enough, the trade was also closed at the exact moment when the MACD histogram flipped into positive territory. As you can see, the Five Minute Momo Trade is an extremely powerful strategy to capture mo- mentum based reversal moves. However, it does not always work and it is important to explore an example where it fails to understand why.

In the chart above the price crosses below the period EMA and we wait 20 minutes later for the MACD histogram to move into negative territory, putting our entry order at 1. We place our stop at the EMA plus 20 pips or 1.

The Swing Trader’s Bible: Strategies to Profit from Market Volatility | Wiley

The price trades down to a low of 1. It then proceeds to reverse course, eventually hitting our stop, causing a total trade loss of 30 pips. When trading the Five Minute Momo strategy the most important thing to be wary of is trading ranges that are too tight or too wide. In quiet trading hours where the price simply fluctuates around the EMA, the MACD histogram may flip back and forth causing many false signals.

Alternatively, if this strategy is implemented in a currency paid with a trading range that is too wide, the stop might be hit before the target is triggered. The same dynamic occurs in trading. That is why although most traders proclaim their love for trading with the trend, in reality the majority love to pick tops or bottoms. Sometimes it is much easier and far more profitable to go with the flow. Yet most traders are still reluctant to buy breakouts for fear of being the last one to the party before prices reverse with a vengeance.

How can we trade breakouts confidently and successfully? It tells the trader to buy or sell when most are averse to doing so. Furthermore, it puts the trader on the right side of the trend at a time when many other traders are trying to fade the price action. The capitulation of these top and bottom pickers in the face of a massive buildup of momentum forces a covering of positions, allowing you to exit profitably within a very short period of time after putting on a trade.

The primary focus of CCI is to measure the deviation of the price of the currency pair from its statistical average. As such, CCI is an extremely good and sensitive measure of momentum and helps us to optimize only the highest probability entries for our setup.

Diploma Thesis, 2004

For our purposes, however, we will use these levels as our trigger points as we put a twist on the traditional interpretation of CCI. We actually look to buy if the currency pair makes a new high above and sell if the currency pair makes a new low below On the daily or the hourly charts place the CCI indicator with standard input of Take a measure of the peak CCI reading and record it. Measure the low of the candle and use it as your stop. If the position moves in your favor by the amount of your original stop, sell half and move stop to breakeven.

Take profit on the rest of the trade when position moves to two times your stop. Rules for the Short Trade 1. Note the very last time the CCI registered a reading of less than before poking above the zone. If CCI once again trades below the and if its value exceeds the prior low reading, go short at market at the close of the candle. Measure the high of the candle and use it as your stop. If the position moves in your favor by the amount of your original stop, sell half and move the stop on the remainder of the position to breakeven.

Not until more than three months later on December 13, , did the CCI produce a value that would exceed this number. On December 13, , however, CCI hit We exited half the position at 1. Our total reward-to-risk ratio on this trade was 1. Note also that we were able to capture our gains in less than 24 hours as the momentum of the move carried our position to profit very quickly.

It is still infrequent, which is one of the reasons that makes this setup so powerful the common wisdom in trading is: the rarer the trade the better the trade. Nevertheless it occurs on the hourly charts far more often than on the dailies. Several days later at 4am on March 28, , the CCI reading reaches a new high of We go long at market on the close of the candle at 1. The low of the candle is 1. The pair consolidates for several hours and then makes a burst to our first target of 1.

We move the stop to breakeven to protect our profits and are stopped out a few hours later, banking 40 pips of profit. As the saying goes, half a loaf is better than none, and it is amazing how they can add up to a whole bakery full of profits if we simply take what the market gives us. A few days later, on October 14, , the CCI prints at We enter short at market on the close of the candle at 1. Our stop is the high of that candle at 1. Our first exit is hit just two days later at 1.